Happy to remind you that I’ll be appearing on The Space Show hosted by Dr. David Livingston this Tuesday (4/28/2020) starting at 7 PM PDT. For more about my previous appearances over the last 9 years, see: Dr. Bruce Cordell.
David and I will be exploring the Wuhan coronavirus and its influence on near-term human spaceflight to the Moon and Mars, within the context of the well-tested Maslow Window model.
You can see intros to the Maslow Window model here:
The Maslow Window — Intro
and here,
A New Apollo-level Space Age.
Here is a list of potential topics for discussion (although we won’t be limited to this list):
1. The Wuhan coronavirus is a 21st Century Sputnik Moment. We’ve chatted about Sputnik Moments many times on The Space Show but this is the first time we’ve seen one in the 21st Century.
An excellent reference on Sputnik history is by Paul Dickson, Sputnik: The Shock of the Century, 2001, Walker Pub. Co.
For general background on the 1957 Sputnik crisis, see NASA’s history of Sputnik.
2. On the importance of Sputnik to Apollo: “Without Sputnik…there would not have been a race to the Moon, which became the centerpiece contest of the Cold War.” NASA Historian Roger Launius in 1997.
President John F. Kennedy and factors that influenced the birth of Apollo Moon program, see: 10 Lessons JFK and Apollo Teach Us…
3. Comparing the shocks of the Coronavirus with Sputnik:
Projected deaths in the U.S., Use of the “China model”, Shutting down the U.S. economy…
How coronavirus has impacted Americans: Pew Research Center survey 3/30/2020.
Trump, the new JFK in space. (6/18/17).
4. U.S. Intelligence sources contend that Coronavirus events involved an accidental release of virus, but evolved into a major cover-up and a global disinformation campaign.
US intelligence concludes China’s government is lying about Coronavirus infections and deaths (4/1/2020).
Navarro explains what should disturb Americans the most about China’s behavior (4/20/20).
America’s great confrontation with China — A pre-virus view (11/8/19).
Coronavirus is communist China’s Chernobyl (3/27/2020).
5. How soon will the U.S. recover its public health?
Is what we’re being told about the coronavirus pandemic wrong? (4/5/20).
The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation (4/22/20).
Israeli professor shows virus follows fixed pattern (4/15/20).
The end of exponential growth: The decline in the spread of coronavirus (4/19/20).
Do lockdowns save many lives?..No. (4/27/20).
6. How soon will the U.S. recover its national economic health?
The US economy was strong before the virus shock (3/7/20).
Kudlow: US economic recovery may start in 4-8 weeks (4/3/20).
The Shutdown Bill Grows (4/22/20).
Trump rewrites the book on emergencies (4/17/20).
7. Summary and what does the Maslow Window model say?
The Model is robust and has correctly forecast every major, relevant event since its early inception in ~1995, including the “black swan” election of President Trump and the transformative effects he would create. Many of these items were previously described on The Space Show over the last 9 years; see Maslow Window Archives.
Is there an analog with the financial Panic of 1907?
See also Figure 3 for a plot of GDP from 1890 to 1914 — the early 20th century Maslow Window (1898-1913) is clearly visible; notice the Panic of 1907. We expect a recovery soon like that seen after 1907.
BOTTOM LINE: It won’t be easy, but the Model forecasts that the U.S. economy will rapidly recover and regain its pre-virus vigor in pursuit of NASA’s Artemis Moon program. SpaceX will also send humans to Mars before 2030.
However, major space-related events after 2030 are much more uncertain because of the closing of the current Maslow Window expected around 2026; e.g., see “Moon bases and Mars colonization…”
One more thought…
In the powerfully ebullient environment of our current Maslow Window — not seen since the 1960s Moon Race, the early 20th century “Panama-fever” (of the Canal) and “Pole-Mania” (of the N & S polar explorers), the mid-19th century “Manifest Destiny” of the U.S., and the seminal exploits of Lewis and Clark over 200 years ago — almost anything is possible.
